What needs to happen now is stop shutting down coal plants, reverse carbon capture and other EPA rules for new natural gas plants, and start building traditional GW scale nuclear plants. I am an advocate for re-powering Palisades nuclear plant in southwest Michigan. The general public hasn’t the slightest clue how close they are to not having affordable, reliable power, and once lost will be extremely difficult to reinstate. There’s going to be a lot of confused and pissed off people. All of this is self-inflicted damage.
Around the Western world, subsidised and mandated wind and solar power have been displacing conventional power in the electricity supply. Consequently, most of the grids in the west are moving towards a tipping point where the lights will flicker at nights when the wind is low. This is a “frog in the saucepan” effect and it only starts to worry people when it is too late. Too late for Britain and Germany certainly.
Consider the ABC of intermittent energy generation.
A. Input to the grid must continuously match the demand.
B. The continuity of RE is broken on nights with little or no wind.
C. There is no feasible or affordable large-scale storage to bridge the gaps.
Therefore, the green transition is impossible with current storage technology.
The rate of progress towards the tipping point will accelerate as demand is swelled by AI and electrification at large.
In Australia, the transition to unreliable wind and solar power has just hit the wall, while Britain and Germany have passed the tipping point and entered a “red zone,” keeping the lights on precariously with imports and deindustrialization to reduce demand.
The meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings and the irresponsible authorities never checked the wind supply! They even missed the Dunkelflautes that must have been known to mariners and millers for centuries!
There is an urgent need to find out why the meteorologists failed to warn us about wind droughts and why energy planners didn’t check. Imagine embarking on a major irrigation project without forensic investigation of the water supply including historical rainfall figures.
I'm surprised to see New York in the lowest risk category. I just read Jon Pepper's Hostile Climate. The Manhattan Contrarian and Climate Etc. have been making blog posts about NY's energy incompetence. Does Manhattan have a bunch of stranded LNG tankers docked onshore?
I believe they're well-stocked in offshore peakers at the moment, but are still vulnerable in winter when it comes to pipelines. Don't quote me on that though.
A lot of NE based gas power plants have mandates for dual fuel operation. That is, two days of fuel or more on site to switch over to in case the gas supply is iffy. Not just for black start, this is also to stretch the pipeline + local LNG storage capacity. Boston has a ring of LNG tanks that they fill in the shoulder seasons.
The power plant in Charlton MA got a kick in the butt when it emerged that its liquid fuel storage tank was empty when it should have been full.
Anyhow, the islands are going to lead the way re: grid stability because few of them have any interconnections and hence have to figure out locally how to deal with an increasing renewable content.
To keep the grid reliable, something will have to be done to make spinning but usually unused gas peakers economical to build and maintain while RE does its thing and to step up when RE isn’t deployable.
Nuclear would be a great option for baseload, grid stability, etc. except for the US penchant to keep building unicorn nukes that are not standardized ones like the French and hence take many more years and $$$ to complete than planned. That’s one main reason nuke economics don’t pencil out - fixed cost overruns literally killed that industry. Meanwhile, RE is incredibly cheap, easily scales, and is only really hampered by a lack of grid interconnections and transmission capacity.
Never mind the success of Soviet and Russian propaganda in conjunction with avoidable issues in running / building western civilian nukes. Wether it’s the wrong SOPs being followed at three mile island or the hubris of not siting a nuke well above past Tsunami lines, like airplane crashes it’s the big events that leave deep distrust in the public mind.
I asked my Congrescritter Adam Schifferbrains, my then senators Dianne Feinstein and Alex Padilla, my California Assemblywoman Laura Friedman, my California State Senator Anthony Portantino, and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, for the comprehensive quantitative end-to-end life-cycle system engineering report about the US energy system, and in particular about our version of Germany's Energiewende failure. Nobody responded even with "I'm sorry, we have no such report." So I wrote "Where Will We Get Our Energy?" Everything quantified. No vague handwaving. 350 bibliographic citations so readers can verify I didn't just make up stuff.
Complicated but serious shit. Glad we have our new whole house generator and continue to run our aging nukes. Our boy Pritzker continues to fuck up our electrical system.
Overall intermittent renewable energy generation which is usually located far from demand centers, while clean, cannot possibly power America. Only nuclear generation can. We should be using the sites of current coal fired power stations which have in place transmission and cooling infrastructure and are close to locations where energy is needed to build new nuclear capacity. Democrats largely reject new nuclear power plants.
Also we are not on track to reduce carbon emissions adequately to halt disastrous climate change. At this stage of the problem only geoengineering can save humanity. Republicans largely reject geoengineering and because they believe in crazy conspiracy theories refuse to support even research into how it might help.
With both parties standing in the way of necessary solutions to the looming climate disaster we are clearly fucked.
Trouble with on site generators is the fuel. How much you have on site vs. relying on natural gas (whose grid could also collapse). Then there is the issue of being the only house in town with the lights on.
Ultimately, the only way out is to have a home that isn’t grid tied to start with. Or only grid tied for appliances like AC that you decide you can live without. Plus, it’s pretty sobering to see just how little my solar array puts out in winter.
I agree that Nuclear is the best baseload option for the time being. But try to build one on time and budget. That’s where the US completely falls apart. That in turn kills the economics.
See LIPA or the recently completed nuke in Ga or FL, wherever it was. The cost overruns make you want to cry.
It appears to me ... humanity requires... Air, Water, and Sun/food... and now Electricity. Electricity is now not a commodity, electricity is a requirement for survival.
The politics of Climate Change 'screwed the pooch" for abundant electricity supply growth. Data Centers and now AI are radically moving the demand curve. Where's the juice? https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/2024-4/ Over the next five years across the Pacific Northwest, significant load growth and changing system dynamics are creating risks for maintaining power system adequacy.
Then you will understand me when I say that idiot meters can injure and kill humans inside the dwelling. If I want to really sleep soundly I must turn off my breaker. As it is I am relocating my office due to its proximity to the meter. My ears ring quite constantly, and it takes a full day of being out of emfs for the ears to begin to normalize. We are not meant....
What needs to happen now is stop shutting down coal plants, reverse carbon capture and other EPA rules for new natural gas plants, and start building traditional GW scale nuclear plants. I am an advocate for re-powering Palisades nuclear plant in southwest Michigan. The general public hasn’t the slightest clue how close they are to not having affordable, reliable power, and once lost will be extremely difficult to reinstate. There’s going to be a lot of confused and pissed off people. All of this is self-inflicted damage.
A warning from The Energy Realists of Australia
Around the Western world, subsidised and mandated wind and solar power have been displacing conventional power in the electricity supply. Consequently, most of the grids in the west are moving towards a tipping point where the lights will flicker at nights when the wind is low. This is a “frog in the saucepan” effect and it only starts to worry people when it is too late. Too late for Britain and Germany certainly.
https://newcatallaxy.blog/2023/07/11/approaching-the-tipping-point/
Consider the ABC of intermittent energy generation.
A. Input to the grid must continuously match the demand.
B. The continuity of RE is broken on nights with little or no wind.
C. There is no feasible or affordable large-scale storage to bridge the gaps.
Therefore, the green transition is impossible with current storage technology.
The rate of progress towards the tipping point will accelerate as demand is swelled by AI and electrification at large.
In Australia, the transition to unreliable wind and solar power has just hit the wall, while Britain and Germany have passed the tipping point and entered a “red zone,” keeping the lights on precariously with imports and deindustrialization to reduce demand.
The meteorologists never issued wind drought warnings and the irresponsible authorities never checked the wind supply! They even missed the Dunkelflautes that must have been known to mariners and millers for centuries!
https://www.flickerpower.com/images/The_endless_wind_drought_crippling_renewables___The_Spectator_Australia.pdf
There is an urgent need to find out why the meteorologists failed to warn us about wind droughts and why energy planners didn’t check. Imagine embarking on a major irrigation project without forensic investigation of the water supply including historical rainfall figures.
https://quadrant.org.au/news-opinions/climate-change/no-gusts-no-glory/
I'm surprised to see New York in the lowest risk category. I just read Jon Pepper's Hostile Climate. The Manhattan Contrarian and Climate Etc. have been making blog posts about NY's energy incompetence. Does Manhattan have a bunch of stranded LNG tankers docked onshore?
I believe they're well-stocked in offshore peakers at the moment, but are still vulnerable in winter when it comes to pipelines. Don't quote me on that though.
A lot of NE based gas power plants have mandates for dual fuel operation. That is, two days of fuel or more on site to switch over to in case the gas supply is iffy. Not just for black start, this is also to stretch the pipeline + local LNG storage capacity. Boston has a ring of LNG tanks that they fill in the shoulder seasons.
The power plant in Charlton MA got a kick in the butt when it emerged that its liquid fuel storage tank was empty when it should have been full.
Anyhow, the islands are going to lead the way re: grid stability because few of them have any interconnections and hence have to figure out locally how to deal with an increasing renewable content.
To keep the grid reliable, something will have to be done to make spinning but usually unused gas peakers economical to build and maintain while RE does its thing and to step up when RE isn’t deployable.
Nuclear would be a great option for baseload, grid stability, etc. except for the US penchant to keep building unicorn nukes that are not standardized ones like the French and hence take many more years and $$$ to complete than planned. That’s one main reason nuke economics don’t pencil out - fixed cost overruns literally killed that industry. Meanwhile, RE is incredibly cheap, easily scales, and is only really hampered by a lack of grid interconnections and transmission capacity.
Never mind the success of Soviet and Russian propaganda in conjunction with avoidable issues in running / building western civilian nukes. Wether it’s the wrong SOPs being followed at three mile island or the hubris of not siting a nuke well above past Tsunami lines, like airplane crashes it’s the big events that leave deep distrust in the public mind.
I asked my Congrescritter Adam Schifferbrains, my then senators Dianne Feinstein and Alex Padilla, my California Assemblywoman Laura Friedman, my California State Senator Anthony Portantino, and Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, for the comprehensive quantitative end-to-end life-cycle system engineering report about the US energy system, and in particular about our version of Germany's Energiewende failure. Nobody responded even with "I'm sorry, we have no such report." So I wrote "Where Will We Get Our Energy?" Everything quantified. No vague handwaving. 350 bibliographic citations so readers can verify I didn't just make up stuff.
Complicated but serious shit. Glad we have our new whole house generator and continue to run our aging nukes. Our boy Pritzker continues to fuck up our electrical system.
Overall intermittent renewable energy generation which is usually located far from demand centers, while clean, cannot possibly power America. Only nuclear generation can. We should be using the sites of current coal fired power stations which have in place transmission and cooling infrastructure and are close to locations where energy is needed to build new nuclear capacity. Democrats largely reject new nuclear power plants.
Also we are not on track to reduce carbon emissions adequately to halt disastrous climate change. At this stage of the problem only geoengineering can save humanity. Republicans largely reject geoengineering and because they believe in crazy conspiracy theories refuse to support even research into how it might help.
With both parties standing in the way of necessary solutions to the looming climate disaster we are clearly fucked.
Trouble with on site generators is the fuel. How much you have on site vs. relying on natural gas (whose grid could also collapse). Then there is the issue of being the only house in town with the lights on.
Ultimately, the only way out is to have a home that isn’t grid tied to start with. Or only grid tied for appliances like AC that you decide you can live without. Plus, it’s pretty sobering to see just how little my solar array puts out in winter.
I agree that Nuclear is the best baseload option for the time being. But try to build one on time and budget. That’s where the US completely falls apart. That in turn kills the economics.
See LIPA or the recently completed nuke in Ga or FL, wherever it was. The cost overruns make you want to cry.
It appears to me ... humanity requires... Air, Water, and Sun/food... and now Electricity. Electricity is now not a commodity, electricity is a requirement for survival.
The politics of Climate Change 'screwed the pooch" for abundant electricity supply growth. Data Centers and now AI are radically moving the demand curve. Where's the juice? https://www.nwcouncil.org/reports/2024-4/ Over the next five years across the Pacific Northwest, significant load growth and changing system dynamics are creating risks for maintaining power system adequacy.
Have you ever fainted because of heart palps?
Then you will understand me when I say that idiot meters can injure and kill humans inside the dwelling. If I want to really sleep soundly I must turn off my breaker. As it is I am relocating my office due to its proximity to the meter. My ears ring quite constantly, and it takes a full day of being out of emfs for the ears to begin to normalize. We are not meant....